GBDUSD good short setup on 29 sept 2010

Today GBDUSD daily chart shows a good setup for shorting the market. If you look at the 3 days candle, it shows very long shadow tip with a close almost near the opening price. If you have shorted the market earlier, you are in good hands.

Emotion challenges

Trading is a lone ranger path, you can't be trading because of someone's else decision to buy or sell. You can seek advises, technical findings or suggestions. But at the end of the day, you need to make your own decision.

This week 38th of the year, i am into my 5th week of paper trading and although i am still in the positive zone with $331.68, My gross profit and loss was greatly extended from my previous week.

Partially this was due to my emotion coming into play when my consecutive 4 losses in a row in EUR/USD eat into my profit for week 4, causing my capital to go go back into 2700+. I realised that i read the overall trend and did not put it into consideration and is always trying to think too much ahead that we are in the process of retracing.

5th Week of Trading

Gross Profit: 2 477.42 Gross Loss: 2 145.74 Total Net Profit: 331.68

Profit Factor: 1.15 Expected Payoff: 4.48

Balance: 3 933.84

4th Week of Trading

Gross Profit: 1 565.10 Gross Loss: 962.94 Total Net Profit: 602.16

Profit Factor: 1.63 Expected Payoff: 10.21

Balance: 3 602.16

If you were to look at the EUR/USD daily chart, technically we are out of the downtrend since Jun 2010 based on the RSI 80/40, 60/20 rule. The confirmation of the reverse in trend can be found in the period of August, where the RSI remains strongly at 40 level. From the chart, we can also see that we are in the early 3rd stage of the elliot wave which i forsee it to be the strongest move.

For next level of resistant, I will be looking at 1.36860, 1.37832, 1.38274 for retracement. For Fibonacci Retracement, I would be looking at 1.37832 at 161.8%.

In the coming week, my overview is to look at long positions with short scalping near resistant.

1 month into Forex trading using MT demo account

Till date, i have blown 5 account with initial deposit of $3000. In my 4th attempts, i did manage to profit $1900+. However, i blew it up by making wrong decision and cost me $2900.

Last week after a lunch talk with my colleague, i realized my money management has been the major issue in my trading. He was sharing with me about the tossing of a coin, "it is higher chance to get 50% head facing up in 10 toss or 100 toss?"

Indeed that was a very clear answer which i didnt get it into my head for the past 11 months of trading.

In my 6th attempts in forex, i begin to put whatever i have learned including the money management theory into practice.

So below statement is my MT4 result for this week.

My first start in trying out Forex

I am not new to trading but my personal 11 months journey in trading has not been very successful. So far as of today, my net lost in Stock trading is about 6068USD.

I concluded that I am not sensitive to the market, making more wrong decisions than right decisions, not confident in letting the winning position run, does not practice demo account, sometimes do not use Stop lost, and many mores flaws in myself

My dream when i was in secondary school days was to be a successful trader. I guess by now that after losing quite some monies, i am more or less awaken from the realities that its not easy to be a trader. However, this does not mean i "GIVE UP" the dream. To make it a reality is to work harder and put in more effort.

After doing what I have been doing for the past 11 months, i decided to stop doing the usual and give those areas that i normally feel uncomfortable a try.

3 weeks ago, a friend shared about his personal experiences on Forex to me as to how he manage to make some monies out of it, who has previously lost quite some monies in the US Stocks. Out of curiosity, abit of greed and the disappointment in losing money away in US Stocks for the past 11 months or so and have attended 2 Stock course which cost me 1000SGD+ and 400SGD+, i decided to try out the Forex to have a feel of how a Forex trader can differ from a Stock trader in terms of emotions, mental and physical.

2 weeks ago, I started opening a FXCM demo account using metatrader4 and put whatever i learned so far in Stock courses and from School of Pipsology into practice. As of today, my balance account left with 1414.71USD. So imagine that is real monies, my capital would be down by half in half a month!

My view of EURUSD is as follows:-

Weekly Chart

On a weekly chart, we can see that the EURUSD indices is showing a lower highs and lower lows since Nov 2009. In the chart, i have included the Polynomial Regression Channel provided by fxcanada. If the price in the following months is unable to close above the yellow and purple line intersections, it is most likely that you will expect a further down trend in the EURUSD.

1) If the currency doest not close above the price 1.4200 - 1.4260, you may see the down trend to continue.

2) If the currency close above the stated price, you may likely see that the trend reversing.

Daily Chart

On 3th September 2010, the US employment payroll situation results is favorable to the stock markets. The DOW, NASQAQ and S&P 500 closed with positive for the week with more than 1.2% gain on friday.

So what has Stock got to do with USD currency? I may not be an expert explaining this but anyway here is what i understood. Whenever the stock indices gain, the related currency price drops. Although the gain in DOW indices versus the drop in USD indices is not a point for point, but you will notice that when DOW gain, USD drop. And vice versa.

Using Polynomial Regression Channel

As my friend shared that he is using metatrader4 as the forex platform for trading, so i went to try it out. I realise that this software is good such that it allows you to build your own customize indicators, scripts and Expert Advisor using MQL4 language, which looks like C programming?

As i was looking for possible tutorials available on how to code your own indicators, i came across this mql4 forum containing a number of codes contributed by the forum members. So i downloaded some of them to try out. Among the many indicators that i have downloaded and tried, the best i personally felt so far is the Polynomial Regression Channel indicator which is contributed by fxcanada. I was trying out myself and think the indicator strategy is quite good. However, as i was testing it, i do find that there are certain market conditions that this indicator does not work.