Sunday, October 10, 2010

EURUSD retracement, extension and projection for Week 41 October


Hi all, after weeks of trading, i still continue to blow my account due to the fact that i am not disciplined with my rules and consistently breaking the rules that i set for myself. Isn't it ironic to break the rules i set for myself?

Today i woke up early in the morning and went for a jog. Frankly speaking, i have not been jogging for the past dunno how many months. The reason why i decided to pick myself up and go exercise is that fact that i recognize that i need to trim my body to reduce the lethargy feelings i always have. Somehow it is affecting my trading focus.

These 2 weeks, i blew 2 demo account again with initial cap 3k USD. So i decided to restart all over again and stick to my trading rules.

I have only been looking at EURUSD and my prediction this week based on the Fibonacci Analysis:-

EURUSD Week 40, Forecast for Week 41.
If you look at the chart that i attached, you will notice that the market begins to retrace abit on the last 2 candles, forming 2 doji. This is a sign of weakness and "not sure what's next" in the market. But this is not the main point that i am trying to tell you.

If you have read about Eliot wave (consist of corrective and countertrend moves) and knows about Gartley pattern, you will notice that the symmetrical move from the 2 line that i drawn is

- the retracement from the highest high to low, with a fibonacci of 61.8
- the extension of green dash line, with a fibonacci of 1.618.
- the projection of point b,c and d to form FE 100%. Notice that the price did not close above this point.

The safety netline for the a reversal trend will be determined based on the 3rd lowest candle from the current highest point. Any break below the 3rd candle is a confirmation of downtrend.

My sentiment for EURSUD next week is more on the downtrend and will be looking for the trade setup. I will also monitor to see the candles are forming Eliot Wave part 3 (strong uptrend) or Garltey pattern part f (pivot point or trend reversal).

Happy Trading!

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